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Abstract:

This study aims to identify robust push and pull factors of human trafficking. I test
for the robustness of 70 push and 63 pull factors suggested in the literature. By employing an
extreme bound analysis, running more than two million regressions with all possible
combinations of variables for up to 153 countries during the period of 1995-2010, I show that
crime prevalence robustly explains human trafficking prevalence both in destination and
origin countries. My finding also implies that a low level of gender equality may have
constraining effects on human trafficking outflows, contrary to expectations. The linkage
between general migration and human trafficking is less clear but a certain type of
globalization facilitating migration – exposure to foreign contacts and information –
determines human trafficking. Institutional quality matters more in origin countries than
destinations

1. Introduction

Human trafficking is an emerging problem rapidly growing in the 21st century
(Interpol 2009). Today, income disparity between the affluent North and (relatively)
impoverished South is still considerable, if not increasing, and people’s aspirations to seek
better opportunities have become greater as information on life in other parts of the world is
now more available than before due to the development of the mass media and internet.
Economic motivation explains, to a great extent, the phenomenon of human trafficking, as
most human trafficking victims are initially migrants seeking better life elsewhere (IOM
2012).
However, an important question, as far as the causes of human trafficking are
concerned, is still to be answered. Why do some people attempting to migrate elsewhere fall
victim to human trafficking, while others do not? Furthermore, why is this phenomenon
increasing? To present, the outcome of investigations on these questions is inconclusive and
there is little consensus on the prime factors determining human trafficking in the literature.
Among many factors suggested in the literature, some factors are important determinants of
human trafficking in some studies, while in others they do not have a significant impact and
other factors are suggested as important causes instead. Such discrepancy is mainly caused by
several critical challenges human trafficking researchers currently face.
First, as research on human trafficking is still in its infancy, there is no exemplary
model identifying the determinants of human trafficking, unlike studies in more established
fields such as economic growth, poverty, and governance. Thus, the choice of variables for
estimation tends to depend on subjective judgments rather than selecting factors which have
already been examined in the literature. Given this background, the results of empirical
investigations on human trafficking are more likely to be susceptible to the choice of variables.
Moreover, difficulties in identifying robust factors are exacerbated due to the poor quality of
human trafficking data, given that human trafficking is a clandestine, criminal activity of a
complex nature (Tyldum and Brunovskis 2005), and therefore current discussions heavily
depend on fragmented information available.
In this paper, I try to overcome the incompleteness of research on human trafficking
and propose a baseline model by reviewing a comprehensive list of the literature and
empirically assessing the robustness of all human trafficking factors suggested in the literature.
My investigation aims to identify robust factors, while controlling for many other overlapping
factors. To do so, I employ an extreme bound analysis (EBA) that identifies factors robust to
the choice of other control variables, singling out variables which survive in some million
regressions, with all possible combinations of other control variables (Leamer 1983; Levine
and Renelt 1992; Sala-i-Martin 1997). This method is particularly sensible if there is no
consensus on the choice of explanatory variables in the literature (Gassebner et al. 2012),
which is the case in human trafficking research. Moreover, in order to reduce potential
estimation biases caused by measurement errors and selection biases in human trafficking
data, I make a use of the three global measurements on human trafficking in-/outflows –
UNODC (2006), US Department of State (2011), and ILO (2005) – and compare the results of
the different measurements.
From the literature consisting of 19 major empirical studies systematically analyzing
causes of human trafficking, I gather 70 factors pushing victims to be trafficked from origin
countries, and 63 factors pulling victims trafficked into destination countries. The factors
reflect diverse aspects of human trafficking, but can be categorized into four pillars –
migration, crime, vulnerability, and policy and institutional efforts. The four prime pillars
explain: 1) which groups of people take risky migration options and therefore may fall victim
to human trafficking (migration and vulnerability pillars); 2) and how/under which
environments those migrants are more easily trafficked (crime and policy/institutional efforts
pillars).
Running more than two million regressions with all the suggested factors, my findings
show that the crime aspect of human trafficking is a robust factor pushing and pulling victims
in origin and destination countries, respectively. Income also robustly explains human
trafficking in both groups of countries suggesting that human trafficking is a phenomenon
occurring between the developed and developing worlds, similar to economic migration. On
the other hand, the size of general migration does not turn out to have a direct impact on
human trafficking, but a certain type of globalization facilitating migration – exposure to
foreign contacts and information – determines human trafficking. In origin countries,
institutional and policy quality matters, but the factors of this pillar do not turn out to have a
significant impact in destinations. Interestingly, gender discrimination and low development –
indicators of the vulnerability of people to trafficking – do not demonstrate robust effects and
some gender-related indicators such as high fertility rates have constraining effects that are
contrary to expectations. It seems that gender discrimination does not have a straightforward
relation with human trafficking, i.e., a very low level of gender equality also constrains
human trafficking, possibly by discouraging female mobility.
The baseline set of robust push and pull factors identified in this paper provides a
reference for further studies closely looking into the specific circumstances surrounding
human trafficking, and offers policy relevance in terms of suggesting where to focus on in
order to combat human trafficking.
This paper is organized as follows. In section 2, I discuss the four pillars explaining
the possible causes of human trafficking. Section 3 details data measuring human trafficking,
which are used in this paper. In section 4, I present the estimation methodology and discuss
the empirical results in section 5. Section 6 concludes with suggestions for further studies.

2. Four Pillars of Human Trafficking

The literature puts forward a large set of push and pull factors of human trafficking,
the first determining the supply of victims from countries of origin, and the latter determining
the demand for labor provided by victims in destinations. The following four pillars provide a
tool to explain the different factors of human trafficking in origin and destination countries.
Each pillar is, of course, not exclusive and many push and pull factors can be included in
more than one pillar.

2.1. Migration

IOM Counter Trafficking Module (CTM), a survey of about 25,000 victims, shows
that most victims were initially recruited for migration through personal connections or
professional agencies, with less than 5% in the sample of the survey being kidnapped. This
observation indicates that, from the outset, the majority of trafficking victims voluntarily
decide to migrate elsewhere. The literature also supports linkage between migration and
human trafficking. Mahmoud and Trebesch (2010) suggest that having a migrant in a family
tends to motivate other family members to migrate and increases the probability of human
trafficking in the family. Akee et al. (2010a, b) also show that migration between two
countries induces human trafficking flows between the countries. Friebel and Guriev (2006)
and Auriol and Mesnard (2010) theoretically connect the linkage between migration policy
and the prevalence of human trafficking in a country.
With this in mind, various factors promoting migration can likely explain human
trafficking. Among them, income is a crucial factor suggested in the literature, given that
migrants commonly come from lower-income countries to wealthier countries. The economic
motivation of migrants is shared by victims of human trafficking who initially wanted to
migrate for economic betterment (IOM 2012). In relation to that, employment opportunities
for the low-skilled in origin countries and demand for cheap labor in destinations can shape
certain migration patterns more prone to human trafficking, which I will further discuss in
section 2.2. Additionally, factors facilitating migration and human mobility across borders –
such as globalization and migration policy – can also provide a linkage to human trafficking
flows.

2.2. Vulnerability

Above, I address the linkage between migration and human trafficking because most
trafficking victims are initially migration seekers. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that
migration factors can provide at least rudimentary indicators of human trafficking; therefore,
determinants of migration are overlapped with push and pull factors of human trafficking to
some extent. However, the pool of migrants is not identical to the pool of human trafficking
victims and thus one needs to raise a further question in explaining human trafficking: why do
some migrants fall victim to human trafficking, while others do not? In other words, what
makes some migrants more vulnerable to human trafficking? In tackling this question, a
vulnerability assessment is noteworthy (Akee et al. 2012).
The literature widely points out that the vulnerable position of women in society is a
powerful push factor of human trafficking outflows (Danailova-Trainor and Belser 2006; Di
Tommaso et al. 2009; Bettio and Nandi 2010; Clawson and Layne 2007).  Human trafficking
is apparently gender-based violence, the majority of victims being females exploited in the
sex industry (UNODC 2006; IOM 2012). Thus, gender discrimination against women in
employment is likely a factor pushing women to take risky migration options which can turn
into human trafficking.
There are also other factors making people more vulnerable to human trafficking. As
discussed above, income is both a push and pull factor of human trafficking. However, it
might be perceived that income differences actually motivate people to undertake risky
migration because such a difference can make people resentful towards their current situation,
and raise expectations for a better life. In this regard, income inequality can be a strong factor
pushing underprivileged people to be trafficked (Mo 2011; Jac-Kucharski 2011). Also,
conflicts, human rights violations and socioeconomic/political unrest lead people into
desperately wanting to escape from their current living situation, therefore making people
under such circumstances more vulnerable to human trafficking (Akee et al. 2010b; Frank
2011, Koser 2000).
Additionally, employment structures in origin and destination countries, which were
mentioned in section 2.1., affect the vulnerability of migrants towards human trafficking in
different ways. Better employment opportunities for unskilled workers (such as employment
in agriculture) can constrain human trafficking outflows, given that most vulnerable migrants
are unskilled workers (Clawson and Layne 2007), while large demand in the prostitution,
agriculture and other informal sectors in destinations pull more vulnerable migrants into their
countries, increasing the likelihood of being trafficked (Cho et al. in press; Jakobsson and
Kotsadam 2011; Danailova-Trainor and Belser 2006).

2.3. Crime

While human trafficking reflects an illicit, exploitative pattern of migration, it is, at the
same time, a crime – specifically a transnational crime – involving the illegal transportation of
people and exploitation of them (UN 2000). In fact, human trafficking occurs only if there
exist perpetuators exploiting vulnerable migrants. According to Interpol (2009), human
trafficking is the third largest transnational crime, bringing large profits for organized crime
groups. Much of the criminology literature documents the connection between human
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smuggling, human trafficking, and organized crime activities (Aronowitz 2001; Salt 2000;
Schloenhardt 2001). The studies show that organized crime organizations – which are already
involved in human smuggling and drug/arms trafficking – are now expanding their business
into trading victims of human trafficking for exploitative labor. These studies point out that
such involvement of criminal organizations enlarges the scope of human trafficking business,
with the profits made through such business amounting to some billion dollars every year
(Belser 2005). In quantitative empirical studies, Akee et al. (2010a) pioneer a study on
traffickers’ incentives to operate human trafficking business in different countries. Their study
suggests that the level of law enforcement and corruption, as well as the prostitution regime,
can affect traffickers’ incentives in selecting countries for their criminal operations.
Based on the discussions in the literature, the prevalence of the crime of human
trafficking seems to be determined by profitability, which is related to market sizes and
conditions in which trafficking victims are typically employed (e.g., prostitution, domestic
servitude, agriculture and other informal sectors), the risk of being caught (law enforcement
level), and the presence of already established criminal organizations with respect to operation
costs and  knowledge of trafficking operations. However, the crime aspect of human
trafficking is something which has widely been neglected in the empirical literature and thus
linkages between human trafficking and the prevalence of crime are still empirically
inconclusive.

2.4. Policy and institutional efforts

As human trafficking is a crime, institutional efforts in combating the crime play an
important role in determining the prevalence of human trafficking. Human trafficking
researchers discuss law enforcement and the level of corruption as important factors, both in
origin and destination countries (Akee et al. 2010a, b; Cho et al. 2012; Cho et al. in press;
Jakobsson and Kotsadam 2011). Besides the general rule of law, specific anti-trafficking
measures are also crucial to addressing the problem (Cho et al. 2012; Cho and Vadlamannati
2012; Lloyd et al. 2012; Potrafke 2011; van Dijk and Mierlo 2011). The anti-trafficking
measures are namely prosecution policy punishing traffickers, protection policy for victims,
and prevention policy controlling borders and tackling the causes of human trafficking (UN
2000). These measures are essential in addressing human trafficking problems as human
trafficking is a specific form of crime which cannot be fully covered by other existing laws.
At present, as anti-trafficking is  a relatively new policy area, the policy responses tend to
reflect the severity of the problem a country faces (van Dijk and Klerx-Van Mierlo 2011),
with the true effects of anti-trafficking policies in reducing human trafficking only to emerge
in the future.
On the other hand, some recent studies suggest that women’s political representation
can influence anti-trafficking measures given that most victims are women and, therefore,
female politicians may have more concerns about combating the problem (Bartilow 2010;
Jac-Kucharski 2011). Furthermore, there is a need to address policy efforts tackling the root
causes of human trafficking such as poverty, inequality and gender discrimination, as well as
general development agendas, as human trafficking is also a developmental problem bringing
about risks for human security (Potrafke 2011)

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