In view of the unusually high number of refugees and IDPs globally and the high number of migrants on the move, many of which are using smugglers to enter countries irregularly, we have arguably entered a new era in mixed migration, refugee movements and displacement.

Whether we believe that the phenomenon constitutes a ‘crisis’ or not, the issue of migration and refugees has become a central political concern in many countries. If left unaddressed or if poorly addressed the political and social consequences will be significant. For policymakers seeking to respond, therefore, it is critical to acknowledge both the new challenge and new context that this phenomenon represents and to ask if the volume and the manner of movement that we are currently witnessing is a temporary phenomenon or is it instead the ‘new normal’?

This discussion paper will identify different aspects of globalization and governance through the lenses of economy, culture, demography, communications, crime and security. It proposes that these aspects are the main ones that have inevitably led to the current mobility and displacement taking place. In the short to medium term these drivers of mobility and displacement will remain strong or become increasingly prevalent. More significantly, however, the confluence of these various forces or waves means the combined impact known as superposition in physics (1), cannot be ignored.

Furthermore, this paper argues that the ability or inability of migration and refugee policy, at national, regional and global levels, to adapt to recent developments is critical to whether future mobility and displacement becomes a source of conflict, crisis and social unrest or whether it will be managed. At stake, amongst other concerns, is the integrity and workability of the refugee convention and accompanying protection standards. If the distinction between economic migrants and refugees is not more strictly applied with appropriately policies designed for each, there is a risk that popular politics will move against refugees irrespective of their genuine needs and rights of protection.

It is a question of perspective whether the current context is one of opportunity or one of threat and crisis, but arguably the combination of all the factors discussed results in a phenomenon far greater than the sum of the parts and, as such, has the making of a ‘perfect storm’ with critical policy implications for relevant countries and regions (2).

1 The principle of linear superposition – when two or more waves come together, the result is the sum of the individual waves
2 A «perfect storm» is an expression that describes an event where a rare combination of circumstances will aggravate a situation drastically. The term is also used to describe an actual phenomenon that happens to occur in such a confluence, resulting in an event of unusual magnitude.

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