EXCERPT FROM INTRODUCTION:

“Although large-scale displacement within Iraq and Syria continued in 2016, movement through and from the Middle East of people displaced by conflict fell significantly compared to 2015. This was due primarily to political determination to prevent cross- border movement, rather than any changes in the root causes of displacement. The drivers and patterns of movement through the Middle East are too numerous to capture here; this report focuses on the movement of refugees and other migrants through Greece and Turkey. These scenarios consider how future policy decisions, primarily by the EU and Turkey, combined with other relevant variables, could affect movement in the region, specifically through Greece and Turkey, over the coming six months, and the potential humanitarian consequences. As is clear from the range of scenarios that could occur, each involving varying degrees and directions of movement, there is an urgent need to address the negative reasons for displacement rather than continue to restrict movement, a policy that is unable to afford protection the most desperate.”